Amid the debate on withdrawal of the stimulus, including speculation of a possible across-the-board roll back of cuts in excise duty and service tax, the document suggested further reduction in excise for export oriented industries.
Private consumption is back driven by festive spending, and the medium-term economic outlook remains bullish as the innate strength of the macro-fundamentals reasserts itself, the Reserve Bank Bulletin said on Wednesday. Global economic activity remained resilient during Q4:2024 amidst fragile confidence and rising protectionism, said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in the November Bulletin.
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The right sequence would be to gradually reduce SLR
The Indian startup ecosystem, which defied odds during a pandemic-hit year to create record 12 unicorns, has the potential to be the engine of growth in the medium to long run, according to the Economic Survey 2020-21. The survey noted that startups are the platform for entrepreneurs who have the ability to think out of the box and innovate to conceive products that can create a niche for themselves in a dynamically changing world.
Inflation stood at at a high of 8.23 per cent in January. After touching a high of 18.23 per cent in December, food inflation came down to 11.49 per cent in mid-February.
... if high oil prices persist or stock prices correct sharply.
India's economic growth will be above 6 per cent in the current fiscal as the country has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal said on Monday. Goyal further said that a global slowdown reducing India's export growth, geopolitics fueling oil and food prices, and erratic weather are some of the continuing risks that the country faces. "India has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks.
While this will incur a revenue loss amounting to 0.2 per cent of GDP, it will provide a strong boost to consumer sentiment and spending, points out Rajani Sinha.
The gross tax revenues have touched 65 per cent of the Budget estimates at Rs 17.81 lakh crore during the first eight months of the current fiscal till November, propelled by corporate and personal income tax mop-up, according to the Economic Survey 2022-23 presented in Parliament on Tuesday. The survey, authored by Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran, said the 'substantial reforms' in India's taxation ecosystem post-2014 and policy reforms have removed the distortionary incentives from the economy. Reforms like GST, reduction in corporate taxes, exemption of sovereign wealth funds and pension funds from taxes, and removing Dividend Distribution tax have reduced the tax burden on individuals and businesses.
Banking on the Budget's tax relief, the BJP seeks to energise Delhi's middle class; the AAP is doing its bit too. But will their outreach mobilise this politically crucial yet disengaged electorate?
In the current fiscal so far, retail inflation stabilised around 5 per cent, while wholesale price-based inflation averaged around 2.9 per cent during April-December.
The pre-Budget document on health of the economy stated that telecom, power, coal, ports, civil aviation and roads have shown signs of recovery in 2009-10.
Referring to the impact of political turmoil in West Asia, he said the crisis would not hurt the economy unless the crude oil prices rise to 'abnormally' high levels.
However, financial flows to the economy remained constrained because of decline in the amount of equity finance raised from the capital markets and stress in the NBFC sector, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman pointed out.
India's manufacturing sector growth moderated in August as output and sales rose at slowest rates since January, while competitive pressures and inflation concerns hampered business confidence, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 57.5 in August, below July's reading of 58.1 but above its long-run average of 54.0, signalling a substantial improvement in operating conditions.
Lauding the farm sector for demonstrating resilience during the pandemic, the Economic Survey on Friday suggested the government to see farm sector as a "modern business enterprise" for which "urgent reforms" are required to enable sustainable and consistent growth. India's agricultural sector has shown its resilience amid the adversities of COVID-19 induced lockdowns, the Survey noted. The agriculture and allied activities were the sole bright spot amid the slide in GDP performance of other sectors, clocking a growth rate of 3.4 per cent at constant prices during 2020-21, it added. According to the Survey, the farm sector has got "renewed thrust" due to various measures on credit, market reforms and food processing under the Aatmanirbhar Bharat announcements.
The move is likely to encourage service providers to take their broadband services to rural India. To further increase connectivity, it recommended allowing open access to local loop for broadband provision and designate rural fibre-optic network as a 'public carrier' for provision of telecom connectivity in the rural areas.
The bench noted even the high court has said in its judgement that 80 per cent of the work related to the survey has been completed.
The government on Thursday said that any slowdown in the excess capital flows from the last year's high levels could affect the stock market in short-term, even as it would make the monetary management easier.
The government should frame new policies to assure growth.
The Economic Survey seems convinced that 2019-2020 saw the bottom of the economic cycle, points out Abheek Barua, chief economist, HDFC Bank.
A quarter of the stocks have been replaced since 2019, marking the evolution of India's economy.
The finance minister continues to be backed by the same policy team in charting out the broad strategy as in the few earlier Budgets.
After adding 11.7 million workers in the October 2022-September 2023 period from the pandemic lows in April 2021-March 2022, total workers employed in the vast informal sector in India - at 109.6 million - still remains below the pre-pandemic period.
The farm sector achieved 3.6 per cent growth during the 11th Five year Plan (2007-12), falling short of the 4 per cent growth target, although it was much higher than growth of 2.5 and 2.4 per cent during 9th and 10th Plans, it added.
Inaugurating the Grameen Bharat Mahotsav, the Prime Minister exuded confidence that villages will play a key role in pushing forward the dream of Viksit Bharat by 2047.
Successive plans have allocated less resources to the Railways.
Per capita income in the state has consistently been below the national average for at least 24 years. However, it has narrowed the gap with the all-India level in recent years.
'I tell young entrepreneurs if you don't have a great idea, if you don't have a good business model, don't think of a start-up.'
Salaries in India are expected to increase by 10.3 per cent in 2023, highest among major world economies and Asian peers, according to Aon plc. In 2022, salaries in India witnessed an actual increase of 10.6 per cent in 2022. As per Aon plc's 28th Annual Salary Increase Survey in India, double-digit salary growth will continue in India despite economic volatility, largely as a response to high attrition rates.
There are few concerns in India's growth story.
'Obesity, especially central obesity and increased visceral fat due to physical inactivity, along with the consumption of high-calorie, high-fat, and high-sugar diets, are major contributing factors.'
Indian economy is poised to do better on the back of reforms undertaken by the government and is expected to clock a 6.5-7 per cent growth in the remaining part of the decade, Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran said on Tuesday. Addressing reporters here after the tabling of the Economic Survey in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, Nageswaran said that by and large, inflation is likely to be "well behaved" in FY2023-24 barring headwinds. "My optimism is that in the coming decade, rest of the decade, the potential GDP growth, without taking into account export potential, because global economy is still rife with uncertainty, the growth rate would be around 6.5 to 7 per cent, rather than between 6 per cent and 6.5 per cent," he said.
The country's exports are expected to contract by 5.8 per cent and imports by 11.3 per cent during the second half of the current financial year, though implementation of several measures by the government would help support exports going forward, according to the Economic Survey 2021. With gradual recovery of economic activities, the survey said that imports and exports have picked up. During the first half of 2020-21 (April-September), exports dipped by 21.31 per cent to $125.25 billion while imports declined by 40 per cent to $148.69 billion.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is likely to strike a fine balance between being fiscally prudent and growth supportive when she presents her fourth straight budget on Tuesday, which is expected to have plans to boost spending to revive investment and create jobs. The Budget for the fiscal year starting April 1, 2022 is likely to raise spending on infrastructure to set the economy on a firmer footing. The stage for the Budget presentation was set by the Economic Survey stating that the government has the fiscal space to do more to support the economy that is forecast to grow at a healthy 8-8.5 per cent growth in the 2022-23 fiscal.
Few finance ministers announce any taxation measure that could upset the stock market. Ms Sitharaman decided to take that risk, observes A K Bhattacharya.
Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) K V Subramanian will be leaving the finance ministry and returning to academia on completion of his three-year term. The government had appointed Subramanian, an ISB Hyderabad professor, as the CEA in December 2018. He had succeeded Arvind Subramanian, who quit the position close to a year ahead of his extended tenure. Subramanian's three-year term would have come up for renewal in December but he decided to return to academia.
The deficit increased to $ 57.2 billion or 2.1 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018-19 as against 1.8 per cent in the previous year.
Stressing that economic growth will only move upwards, the Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday pegged the GDP growth rate for the next financial year at 10.5 per cent, though a tad lower than the government's projection of 11 per cent. The projection is in line with the estimates in the Union Budget 2021-22 presented in Parliament earlier this week. The Economic Survey, tabled by the government in Parliament recently, has projected that the economy will grow at 11 per cent, up from an estimated historic decline of 7.7 per cent in 2020-21, on account of the COVID-19 pandemic.
'They think quick fixes like internship in the private sector will help. 'In fact, internships have been going on for the last one decade.' 'In 2014-2015 itself, we had a ministry of skill development. None of the programmes have yielded results, still they are continuing with such schemes under some other name.' 'We don't see any seriousness on the part of the government to attack the problem of unemployment.'
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